Strategic autonomy without strategic depth? European defence supply chains, military-industrial cooperation, and the central and eastern European constraint

While Europe’s drive toward strategic autonomy in defence and security has gained momentum since Ukraine, policy discussions disproportionately focus on governance cohesion and elite consensus, frequently neglecting the physical infrastructures of military force. This article advances the argument that Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy is limited less by stated ambitions than by entrenched structural deficiencies in defence production networks and uneven industrial capabilities among European states. Grounded in a political-economy framework, this article defines strategic autonomy in industrial terms, emphasizing the capacity to uphold procurement, maintenance, and replenishment under conditions of sustained, high-intensity conflict. Rather than treating Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as an outlying region, the study emphasizes its role as a foundational constraint within the strategic landscape. CEE, as the region most vulnerable to modern security pressures, operates as a proving ground for the EU’s assertions of strategic autonomy. The urgency of frontline defence has triggered swift rearmament efforts since 2022, yet acquisition patterns remain tethered to non-European suppliers and fragmented maintenance regimes, entrenching strategic dependencies. This pattern underscores structural asymmetries within Europe’s defence infrastructure, impeding standardization, scalability, and the capacity to generate rapid force in times of crisis. Treating the Ukraine war as a diagnostic lens rather than a combat narrative, the article interrogates how protracted land conflict has exposed production shortfalls in munitions, vulnerabilities in energy supply chains, and fragmentation in cross-border logistical alignment. It demonstrates that while operational reforms have accelerated, industrial adaptation has lagged behind, creating a persistent mismatch between policy objectives and production capacity. The study enriches ongoing discussions on European security by conceptualizing strategic autonomy through the lens of supply-chain regulation, manufacturing capacity, and intergovernmental coherence across a diverse Europe. In closing, the study highlights the consequences for military-industrial integration, the institutional interplay between the EU and NATO, and prospective research agendas focused on defence political economy in the CEE region.