Chlorophyll-a Estimation in 149 Tropical Semi-Arid Reservoirs Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

Eutrophication, a global concern, impacts water quality, ecosystems, and human health. It’s crucial to monitor algal blooms in freshwater reservoirs, as they indicate the trophic condition of a waterbody through Chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration. Traditional monitoring methods, however, are expen-sive and time-consuming. Addressing this hindrance, we developed models using remotely sensed data from the Sentinel-2 satellite for large-scale coverage, including its bands and spectral indexes, to estimate the Chla concentration on 149 freshwater reservoirs in Ceará, Brazil. Several machine learning models were trained and tested, including k-nearest neighbours, random forests, extreme gradient boosting, the least absolute shrinkage, group method of data handling (GMDH), and sup-port vector machine models. A stepwise approach determined the best subset of input parameters. Using a 70/30 split for the training and testing datasets, the best-performing model was the GMDH, achieving an R2 of 0.91, MAPE of 102.34%, and RMSE of 20.38 g/L, which are values consistent with the ones found in the literature. Nevertheless, the predicted Chla concentration values were most sensitive to the red, green, and near infra-red bands.