Attaining a Green Economy through Sustainable Urban Transport: Evidence and Pathways from FCT Abuja, Nigeria

The transport sector remains a pivotal lever for advancing Nigeria’s transition toward a green and climate-resilient economy. Using Abuja the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) as an analytical lens, this study interrogates the readiness, structural barriers, and policy pathways for decarbonizing and modernizing urban mobility systems. Drawing on an integrated review of national policy frameworks, secondary empirical evidence, and stakeholder insights documented in recent scholarship, the analysis assesses: (i) the degree of coherence between Abuja’s transport trajectory and Nigeria’s green-economy commitments; (ii) institutional, infrastructural, fiscal, and governance constraints; (iii) performance of existing interventions such as the Abuja Light Rail, compressed natural gas (CNG) transition pilots, limited BRT attempts, and emerging non-motorized transport (NMT) initiatives; and (iv) feasible transition models suited to Abuja’s socio-economic and spatial realities. Anchored in Ecological Modernization Theory, the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, and Transition Management, findings indicate that although Nigeria possesses substantive policy instruments National Green Economy Policy, National Transport Policy, and the Energy Transition Plan execution deficits persist. These include fragmented institutional coordination, weak metropolitan governance, insufficient climate-finance mobilization, poor last-mile connectivity, affordability challenges, and inadequate engagement of informal transport operators. Existing projects exhibit demonstrable potential but are undermined by low demand, high fares, limited feeder systems, and minimal behavioural incentives. The paper proposes a phased, context-appropriate transition pathway encompassing governance reforms (including an FCT Green Transport Unit), blended financing mechanisms, social-equity protections, accelerated electrification of paratransit and BRT systems, strengthened NMT–TOD integration, and a rigorous monitoring and emissions-accounting architecture. The study contributes actionable insights for policymakers, donors, and private investors seeking to position sustainable mobility as a driver of green economic transformation in sub-Saharan African capitals.