Changing Kinship Structure and its Implications for Old-Age Support in Urban and Rural China

This study explores the ramifications of China's imminent population ageing at the family and kinship level – by simulating China's evolving family and kinship structure. Results from such simulations suggest that the burden of supporting old parents is likely to increase tremendously, quadrupling for urban families and doubling for rural families by the year 2030, when China's baby-boomers will enter their old age. Increases of such magnitudes suggest that family alone is unlikely to be able to meet the demands of the rapidly increasing elderly population. Public assistance, especially to rural families, is urgently needed to ensure that the family will not be overstrained by the burden of old age support. The results of this study also point out the potential of tapping the resources among the elderly population to compensate for the loss in support from children. Given their improved health status, the young elderly could provide substantial assistance in caring for the older and more frail elderly.