Enhancing Renewable Energy Integration via Robust Multi-Energy Dispatch: A Wind–PV–Hydrogen Storage Case Study with Spatiotemporal Uncertainty Quantification

This paper addresses the challenge of renewable energy curtailment, which stems from the inherent uncertainty and volatility of wind and photovoltaic (PV) generation, by developing a robust model predictive control (RMPC)-based scheduling strategy for an integrated wind–PV–hydrogen storage multi-energy flow system. By building a “wind–PV–hydrogen storage–fuel cell” collaborative system, the time and space complementarity of wind and PV is used to stabilize fluctuations, and the electrolyzer–hydrogen production–gas storage tank–fuel cell chain is used to absorb surplus power. A multi-time scale state-space model (SSM) including power balance equation, equipment constraints, and opportunity constraints is established. The RMPC scheduling framework is designed, taking the wind–PV joint probability scene generated by Copula and improved K-means and SSM state variables as inputs, and the improved genetic algorithm is used to solve the min–max robust optimization problem to achieve closed-loop control. Validation using real-world data from Xinjiang demonstrates a 57.83% reduction in grid power fluctuations under extreme conditions and a 58.41% decrease in renewable curtailment rates, markedly enhancing the local system’s capacity to utilize wind and solar energy.