In August 2021, two decades after the outbreak of the Afghan war, the United States (U.S.) withdrew its troops from Afghanistan. As the U.S. forces departed, the Taliban launched a rapid offense, capturing key provinces and cities. At the time, widespread corruption and distrust plagued Afghanistan’s administrative apparatus, so the U.S. could not accurately predict when the government would collapse as gathering reliable information was nearly impossible. As the Taliban took control of Afghanistan more swiftly than anticipated, it was expected that militant Islamic factions such as the al-Qaeda and Islamic State would enter Afghanistan to compete for political dominance (Center for Preventive Action, 2021). Additionally, China’s concerns grew as they feared that the spread of jihadist elements from Afghanistan could fuel separatist movements among the Uyghur population in Xinjiang. The fall of the Afghan government, which had largely been sustained by the presence of U.S. forces from 2001 to 2021, and the subsequent rise to power of the Taliban, who had limited and controversial governing experience from their previous rule from 1996 to 2001, led to a grim outlook for the country’s future (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, 2022). As 2024 marks three years since the U.S. withdrawal, it is necessary to examine the Taliban’s effectiveness in establishing governance structures, maintaining social order, and fostering economic development to determine whether the country is progressing toward a functional state administration.
Hwang et al. (2025) studied this question.