Analysis of Production Factors on National Rice Availability: Quantitative and Swot Approach

Rice is a staple food in Indonesia that plays a crucial role in supporting national food security, maintaining social and economic stability, and ensuring household food security. However, its availability is often affected by production fluctuations that depend on cropping patterns and the impact of climate change. This study aims to analyze the impact of production factors, imports, and exports on rice availability in Indonesia during the period 2012-2022. In addition, this study also conducted a SWOT analysis to develop a strategy to increase the availability of rice in a sustainable manner. A quantitative approach was used with multiple linear regression method to identify the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Secondary data was obtained from various trusted institutions, including the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Logistics Agency (Bulog), the Ministry of Agriculture, Bank Indonesia, the World Bank, and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Data processing was conducted using Microsoft Excel and Python software. The regression results found that the size of the harvest area has a positive and significant influence on national rice production with a coefficient of 5.32. This means that an increase in harvest area is directly proportional to an increase in national rice production. However, other variables such as rainfall, irrigation area, and population did not show strong statistical significance on rice production, although theoretically these factors are expected to play a role in determining rice availability. SWOT analysis reveals the internal and external factors that influence rice availability in Indonesia. The analysis shows that Indonesia has strengths in the form of large harvest areas and government support for food production. However, there are weaknesses such as suboptimal irrigation infrastructure, crop shrinkage, labor, and land degradation. On the other hand, opportunities such as agricultural modernization and food diversification can support efforts to improve food security. However, climate change, population increase, and conversion of agricultural land pose significant threats to the sustainability of national rice availability. The results of this analysis are expected to serve as a basis for developing more effective strategies in dealing with the dynamics of the food sector in Indonesia.