What type of study is this?

This is a Join Point Regression study (also classified as: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis).

September 10, 2025

Trends of Female Breast Cancer Burden in China over 25 Years: A Join Point Regression and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Based on the GBD (1997–2021)

Key Points

The age standardized incidence rate of female breast cancer in China was 37.12 per 100,000 women in 2021, highlighting a significant health concern.
Annual percentage change for breast cancer incidence was 2.42%, while mortality showed a slight decrease of -0.49% over the study period.
Join point regression and age-period-cohort models were employed to analyze trends and impacts of age, period, and cohort on breast cancer in China.
The findings underscore the urgent need for effective preventive strategies and tailored treatment approaches for breast cancer management.

Abstract

Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most prevalent malignant tumors among women globally. The incidence and mortality rates of female BC exhibit significant variation across different countries and regions. This study analyzed the trends of BC among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 to support evidence-based for the prevention, screening and treatment strategies of female BC in China. We extracted data on BC incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and years of life lost (YLLs) among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)database. Join point regression analysis was used to identify the major turning points of disease burden trends, and to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). We applied age-period-cohort (A-P-C) models to separately evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on trends in female BC in China. In 2021, the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and DALYs of female BC in China were 37.12 (95% CI: 28.23,46.95) and 281.54(95% CI: 216.87,358.11) per 100,000 women respectively. The AAPC values of the incidence and mortality of female BC were 2.42% (95% CI 2.04-2.80) and -0.49% (95% CI -0.70--0.28) respectively (p < 0.05). A-P-C model indicated that both the rates of incidence, prevalence and deaths increased with age from 1997 to 2021. The period effect analysis revealed that the prevalence and incidence risk of BC peaked between 2015 and 2020, with the highest rate ratio (RR) value 1.28 (95% CI 1.25-1.31) and 1.22 (95% CI 1.19-1.25). The cohort born in 2002 exhibited the lowest risk of mortality and the highest risk of incidence and prevalence. Over the past 25 years, the large population size and aging population structure in China have led to female BC becoming an important public health issue. Effective preventive strategies and individualized treatment approaches are urgently required to enhance the control of BC in China.

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Trends of Female Breast Cancer Burden in China over 25 Years: A Join Point Regression and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Based on the GBD (1997–2021)

Key Points

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