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This is a Quantitative Study study.

September 17, 2025

Trends and extremes of near surface dry-bulb, wet-bulb, and dewpoint temperature across south-east Asia and northern Australia (1980–2021)

Key Points

Trends in dry-bulb, wet-bulb, and dewpoint temperatures show broad positive trends across south-east Asia.
Extreme temperature events are observed to be more frequent during El Niño years, suggesting climate linkages.
Weak trends in northern Australia contrast with significant increases in temperatures observed in south-east Asia.
Temperature extremes, particularly dewpoint and wet-bulb, are rising at rates up to 0.5°C per decade in certain areas.

Abstract

Abstract Trends in seasonal average dry-bulb temperature (T), wet-bulb temperature (T WB ), and dewpoint temperature (T D ) over the last 42 years (1980–2021) were analysed over the SE Asian and tropical northern Australian region. All three variables show broad positive trends in most areas, except for relatively weak, non-significant trends over northern Australia. Trends in T D and T WB are as high as 0.5°C/decade in parts of SE Asia, with generally slightly smaller observed trends in T WB than T. Trends over the ocean tend to be less variable and slightly weaker on average. We observe an increased occurrence of extreme events in recent years (the 2010s) compared to earlier decades. T, T WB , and T D extremes occur substantially more frequently during El Niño years, in addition to an underlying increasing trend.

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