Armed conflicts—from the Gulf War (1990–91) and Kargil (1999) to the U.S.–China trade war (2018–), Russia–Ukraine (2022–), and the Red Sea crisis linked to the Israel–Hamas war (2023–)—have repeatedly reshaped India’s trade flows, prices, and partners. Wars propagate through multiple channels: (i) energy and commodity price shocks; (ii) route and logistics disruptions; (iii) sanctions, export controls, and payments frictions; (iv) risk premiums on finance and insurance; and (v) trade diversion and realignment of global value chains (GVCs). This article synthesizes theory and evidence to show how these channels affected India’s merchandise and services trade, balance of payments, inflation, and sectoral winners/losers. Using recent multilateral estimates and case material, we document: (1) how shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and the Black Sea rerouted trade and raised costs for Indian exporters; (2) how discounted Russian crude altered India’s import basket, refining margins, and re-exports of petroleum products; and (3) how U.S.–China tariff hostilities created selective opportunities for India in electronics, chemicals, and textiles while also raising global uncertainty. We integrate classic trade theory (comparative advantage, terms-of-trade, new trade theory) with modern GVC and geopolitics insights, and we assess macro spillovers to growth and inflation. Policy recommendations emphasize resilience—diversified energy sourcing, hedging logistics risk, deepening trade facilitation, and leveraging services exports—while carefully navigating sanctions compliance. The paper closes with a future-scope agenda on nearshoring, rupee-based settlements, green shipping, and dual-use tech controls that will increasingly frame India’s trade in a fragmenting global economy. IMFUN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)Business Standard Econ Stor.
D Radha (Mon,) studied this question.