Abstract This paper explores the system-level impacts of electrification on road freight transport efficiency, a complex concept involving various stakeholders. Electrification adds further complexity by introducing new stakeholders, dynamics, and efficiency variables. The study applies System Dynamics modelling to explore interactions between efficiencies and the impact of electrification. The model is grounded in literature, expert interviews, and workshops, using Swedish data to simulate 2010-2050 for heavy trucks. Results highlight trade-offs among efficiencies and a worse-before-better behaviour in cost, as electrification initially increases costs but results in lower long-term costs. The model allows testing of policy interventions endogenously to explore their dynamic impacts. Findings show two phases of electric truck adoption. Policy analysis suggests focusing on charging infrastructure in the first phase and cost-oriented policies in the second. By increasing system-level understanding, this paper offers valuable knowledge to decision-makers navigating the transition towards a more efficient and sustainable system.
Raoofi et al. (Wed,) studied this question.