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Recommended List (RL) is the UK plant variety recommendation system introduced in 1944 for supporting growers in making decisions on variety choices. The current RL system is heavily focused on single-trial analyses developed in the 1980s without making full use of information across varieties and trial sites. Given the statistical advances that have been developed and adopted elsewhere, it is timely to review and update the methods for data analysis in RL. In addition, threats from climate change challenge the prediction of variety performance in future environments. Better variety recommendations, particularly for matching varieties to specific environments can be achieved through the improved modeling of effects from genetics, environments, and genetic-by-environment interactions. Here, we evaluate grain yield data from 153 spring barley varieties that were trialed for RL from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that the current RL system produces poor and inconsistent predictions on variety performance across environments. Improvement in RL can be achieved by using mixed models that account for genetic relationships among varieties, and additional improvement is possible if genetic-by-environment interaction can be modeled accurately. We highlight the relevance and importance of genomics in both variety registration and recommendation.
Yang et al. (Tue,) studied this question.