Analysis of the Security Impact of AUKUS on the South China Sea: Based on Defensive Realism Analysis

The formation of the AUKUS alliance (comprising Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States) represents a pivotal development in the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region. Formed with the objective of countering Chinas growing influence through the sharing of advanced technology, including nuclear-powered submarines, the alliance signals a significant shift in the regional geopolitical landscape. This paper employs a defensive realist lens to analyse AUKUS, examining its strategic motivations and regional security implications, particularly in the South China Sea. The research investigates how, despite its ostensible defensive intent, AUKUS is perceived by China as a provocation, thereby intensifying the security dilemma. Furthermore, the study assesses the United Kingdoms perspective on AUKUS as a vital instrument for sustaining its global influence in the post-Brexit era. This paper identifies a plethora of technical, logistical, financial, and diplomatic challenges confronting the alliance.