Assessment of the Initial, Actual, and Forecast Service Life for the Safe Operation of Hazardous Productions

The article considers the assessment of initial, actual, and forecast service life for the safe operation of hazardous productions by the degree of wear. The analysis of scientific research helped to determine that a small number of applied indices limits the use of probabilistic models to assess the service life of equipment of hazardous productions by the degree of wear. Probabilistic models require a large volume of statistical data; therefore, their application provides an exact assessment of the service life of serial products. Within the framework of the study, an attempt to apply Euler’s method of forecast and correction to detect and explain the regularity of reduction of the service life of the safe operation of equipment by the degree of wear has been made. Such a regularity is represented by the interconnection of the initial (at the moment of manufacture), actual (current), and forecast (for the period of extended operation) resources. The initial, actual, and forecast service lives are expressed via specific technical indices such as the degree of damage and degradation of the material, the degree of wear of parts and joints determined by both a priori information on the previous operation modes of the equipment and the technical diagnostics, strength and service life tests conducted during shutdown maintenances. It is suggested that the factors affecting the strength and service life of equipment mostly have a regular pattern. Taking these factors into account is one of the measures to reduce risks during the life cycle of equipment used in hazardous productions, from its manufacturing to its disposal.