The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically

Abstract The sustainable development of China has been challenged by the misalignment of water demand and supply across regions under varying climate change scenarios. Here we develop a water stress prediction index using a fuzzy decision-making approach, which analyzes spatiotemporal variations of water stress and concomitant effects on the populace within China. Our results indicate that water stress will increase from 2020 to 2099 under both low and high emission scenarios, primarily due to decreased water supplies like surface runoff and snow water content. Seasonal analysis reveals that annual fluctuations in water stress are mainly driven by changes in spring and autumn. Water stress is projected to be considerably lower in southeastern provinces compared to northwestern ones, where, on average, over 20% of the Chinese population could be severely impacted. These changes in water stress could lead to the north-to-south migration of the agriculture sector, manufacturing sector, and human population.