Assessment of flood risk in a coastal city considering multiple socio-economic vulnerability scenarios

Abstract. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stresses the importance of vulnerability and exposure along with hazard in defining flood risk. Therefore, a novel approach for flood risk quantification is proposed that evaluates the impact of various realistic socio-economic scenarios on risk reduction. The flood hazard is derived from a hydrodynamic flood modelling framework over Mumbai, India's highly flood-prone coastal megacity. The socio-economic vulnerability is assessed by a multivariate approach based on principal component analysis and data envelopment analysis. Finally, the flood risk is quantified and mapped by aggregating hazard and vulnerability for different socio-economic scenarios, also key indicators contributing to a significant reduction in vulnerability and risk are identified. This non-structural long-term flood risk management approach will benefit densely populated urban areas, especially in developing, and underdeveloped countries.