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Inter-basin water transfers (IBWTs) aimed at mitigating uneven spatial distribution of water offer the potential to save water through changes in water use efficiency. However, the water rebound effect induced by the improved water use efficiency may offset the water-saving effect of IBWTs. Existing studies failed to explain this complex association between IBWTs and the water rebound effect. A conceptual framework of IBWTs and the water rebound effect is proposed in this study, and the causal association between the two and the possible mechanisms involved are scrutinized in the case of China's South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). This study argues a causal association between SNWTP and the mitigation of water rebound effects, which is usually associated with the SNWTP's ability to change the industrial structure and enhance environmental regulation intensity in water-receiving areas. In addition, SNWTP also improves water availability and reduces water use efficiency, thus indirectly mitigating the water rebound effect. Finally, the influence of SNWTP on water rebound tends to vary depending on the economic and demographic differences in water-receiving areas.
Sheng et al. (Sat,) studied this question.