A cognitive process model captures near-optimal confidence-guided waiting in rats

Abstract Rational decision-makers invest more time pursuing rewards they are more confident they will eventually receive. A series of studies have therefore used willingness to wait for delayed rewards as a proxy for decision confidence. However, interpretation of waiting behavior is limited because it is unclear how environmental statistics influence optimal waiting, and how sources of internal variability influence subjects’ behavior. We trained rats to perform a confidence-guided waiting task, and derived expressions for optimal waiting that make relevant environmental statistics explicit, including travel time incurred traveling from one reward opportunity to another. We found that rats waited longer than fully optimal agents, but that their behavior was closely matched by optimal agents with travel times constrained to match their own. We developed a process model describing the decision to stop waiting as an accumulation to bound process, which allowed us to compare the effects of multiple sources of internal variability on waiting. Surprisingly, although mean wait times grew with confidence, variability did not, inconsistent with scalar invariant timing, and best explained by variability in the stopping bound. Our results describe a tractable process model that can capture the influence of environmental statistics and internal sources of variability on subjects’ decision process during confidence-guided waiting.