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Abstract: The clean energy transition, driven by both government intervention and technological progress, will profoundly alter geopolitics and business. Unlike the oil era, clean energy heralds lower margins and geographic decentralization. Cleantech's demand for innovation will intensify U.S.-China competition for technological supremacy, galvanizing techno-nationalism. States will deepen regional integration and forge minilateral alliances that reflect their geopolitical interests when developing green energy supply chains. Cleantech will also empower subnational communities, which will enjoy greater energy independence and more control over mineral extraction. Meanwhile, firms that can leverage cleantech's key sources of competitive advantage—economies of scale, corporate diplomacy, multinationalism, and business model innovation—will lead the energy sector. To navigate the green transition, states must delicately balance the demands of national interests with the drive for higher efficiency and more rapid innovation arising from global markets.
Werker et al. (Sat,) studied this question.
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