Analysis of Causal Phenomenon Between Low Fertility and Education using Systems Thinking

Considering that the low fertility phenomenon is intricately intertwined with education, this study attempted to analyze the causal phenomenon of low fertility and education through the lens of systems thinking. First, the relationship between low fertility and education and the logic of the education policy in response to low fertility were analyzed with a causal loop diagram, and then the problem of the education policy in response to low fertility was analyzed by synthesizing them. The analysis revealed that the low fertility is reinforced by establishing mutual causal relationships with education-related variables such as the burden of private education costs, increased demand for higher education, and the deterioration of the quality of the educational environment. The education policies in response to low fertility that emerged in this context were passive policies, focusing on adapting to a low fertility society(e.g., university structural reform, reduction of the number of teachers, consolidation of schools, and complexation of school facilities), and active policies, aimed at raising fertility rates(e.g., expanding care supply and supporting education expenses). However, it was found that the intervention effect of the education policy in response to low fertility was limited due to problems such as lack of consideration of key factors of low fertility, such as the burden of private education expenses, or unintended negative results such as a decrease in the quality of the educational environment were found in the policy execution process. Based on these research results, the matters to be considered in the design and implementation of low fertility education policies were presented as implications.