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Humanity is continuing a path towards ecological instability. While resource consumption is unprecedented, significant parts of the human population are still deprived of decent living. The safe and just operating space postulates that it is possible to simultaneously stay within ecological limits and fulfill basic needs. However, evidence that such a state can be achieved given existing population and available technologies is lacking. Here, we attempt to show whether a safe and just space exists by modelling material and energy requirements for satisfying basic needs with various technological scenarios. Environmental impacts of a basket of products representing basic needs satisfaction are measured through life cycle analysis and compared to planetary boundaries for the first time. We find that all planetary boundaries considered can be respected for 8.0 and 10.4 billion people with a probability of 81% and 73% respectively. However, this requires a fossil-free energy system, and an essentially vegan diet as well as no additional cropland conversion. To actually create and enlarge a safe and just operating space, carbon dioxide emissions, biodiversity, phosphorous and nitrogen emissions would need to be further reduced, mainly by improved agricultural practices and material circularity. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to find out if humanity can fulfill basic needs for all humans without destabilizing the Earth system. This information is relevant for identifying pathways to futures in which all humans can live good lives without compromising the livelihoods of future generations. Our results show that it is theoretically possible to satisfy the basic needs of 10.4 billion people within ecological limits. However, large-scale transformations in all sectors and dietary changes are necessary to guarantee safe climate conditions.
Schlesier et al. (Sat,) studied this question.