The trend of AIDS in China: A prediction and comparative analysis with G20 countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract Background In China, AIDS has become the most severe notifiable infectious disease. The study aimed to analyse and predict the trend of AIDS in China and compared with Group of Twenty (G20) countries. Methods We utilised incidence, mortality or disability-adjusted life years (DALY), age-standardised rates (ASR), average annual percentage changes (AAPC) to estimate the trend via GBD 2019. The Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to identify the most significant years of change. We explored the relationship between AAPC and social development index (SDI) or health care access and quality (HAQ), and predicted trends for the next 20 years. Results The DALY in G20 increase of 340.42%, and 794.50% in China. The age-standardised DALY rate (ASDR) in G20 was 309.49 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 284.69, 350.58) in 2019, with an AAPC of 4.30. Among G20, the United States had the highest DALY in 1990, but it experienced a significant decline. In China, the ASDR was 98.15 (95% UI = 78.78, 119.58) with the 5th AAPC ranking. In term of gender, the incidence, mortality, DALY, and ASR of them in China and G20 were all higher in males. Furthermore, the gender gap in China had been widening. The most significant periods of ASDR increase in China were 1990–1995 and 2013–2016, and 1990–1994 in G20. The prediction for DALY indicated that high SDI countries were expected to exhibit a stable or declining trend, while low SDI countries showed an upward trend. China demonstrated a 57.66% increase in 2040 compared to 2019. Conclusions AIDS continues to be a significant burden. In China, the ASIR exhibited a decline trend in certain age groups, while the ASMR and ASDR continued to increase, with a widening gender disparity. In addition, according to our predict results, some countries could not achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development set by the UNAIDS. Therefore, it is necessary to establish more effective and targeted measures, as well as actively explore new treatment approaches.