Balancing cleaner energy and geopolitical interests in the complex transition of the European electricity mix: from Fukushima to the Ukraine war

Abstract In the modern world, electric energy plays a pivotal role in sustaining life and driving technological, scientific, and human development. Consequently, the selection and availability of the energy sources used for electricity generation have become crucial elements of strategic planning for countries and economic blocks. Moreover, the impact of these choices extends beyond the mere energy demand/supply, affecting economies, societies and the environment across geographical boundaries. This study delves into the various factors influencing the composition and the recent expansion of the European electricity mix. It explores the interplay of environmental, climatic, political, economic, and external factors that shape Europe’s energy choices. To conduct this analysis, we utilized data from the International Energy Agency on electricity generation and GHG emissions. Data mining techniques were employed to uncover patterns and trends in the monthly data from 2010 to 2022, from which political and economic milestones such as the shutdown of nuclear power plants and the European Union’s increased reliance on natural gas imports from Russia were examined. The study also discusses the impact of using natural gas for power generation on increasing GHG emissions. Ultimately, this research reveals that the European Union choices in transitioning towards a cleaner electricity mix have not yet proven efficient. In fact, these choices may have inadvertently created favorable conditions for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, triggering, not only a humanitarian crisis, but also an economic downturn in Europe due to soaring energy prices. This crisis could potentially extend beyond Europe and impact the whole planet in 2023 and on, including developing countries that rely on stable energy prices for their sustainable growth.