Ethno-demographic aspects of population aging in Azerbaijan (in a case study for the Shaki-Zagatala economic region)

Problem statement. The ethnodemographic aspects of population aging in the Shaki-Zagatala economic region, which is located in the northwestern part of Azerbaijan and has a rich ethnic composition, were scrutinized in the research paper. The analysis of this issue is important in terms of regulating demographic development, protecting ethnic minorities, and controlling population employment, taking into account the current and future dynamics of the population, as well as ethnic minorities. Purpose. The primary purpose of the research is to unravel the dynamics of the age composition among various ethnic groups in the more recent decades, study the level of population aging and the impact of other demographic indicators on it, calculate the aging index, and provide a forecast taking into account the recent and current situation. Research methods. During the research procedure, literary and archive materials were examined, statistical materials were obtained, structural-functional analysis, generalization, and historical and geographic modelling methods were applied. Moreover, field research works were conducted to examine the region closely and to study aging as well. Research results. As a result of the conducted research, it was posed that from 1999-2019, the share of those aged 65 and over increased among minority ethnic groups, Azerbaijanis, and the country’s total population. The leading causes behind this change in each ethnic group was the decrease in the number of people aged 0-4 and 5-9, in other words, the decrease in the birth rate in the last decade led to an increase in the share of the elderly due to the decrease in the number of people in the lower age group among the total population. At the same time, traces of the high natural increase that existed before the Second World War, that is, from 1935 to 1939, can be experienced as well. The high natural increase recorded in those years affected a slight increase in the share of the elderly in 2009. At the same time, the participation of the marriageable age population in migration processes also played a significant role in the decrease in the share of people in the lower age group. Conclusion. It can be concluded that the level of aging has increased in the region for both Azerbaijanis and ethnic minorities, and among the factors affecting this process, a decrease in birth rates and an increase in average life expectancy have played a significant role. Moreover, the Aging Index (AI) indicators also moved along an increasing trend from 1999-2019. In the model prepared based on changes in age groups, the population, as well as ethnic minorities, moved from the second phase of the demographic transition to the third phase from 1999-2019, and are currently approaching phase IV. Similarly, both the Aging Index and the Active Aging Index are expected to increase in the coming decades. According to the forecast, by 2059, due to the high natural increase recorded in previous years, the share of the elderly among the total population and ethnic minorities will have increased significantly. This will have culminated in a regressive demographic situation in the country.