Preserving human potential in Ukraine: demographic aspect

The article examines the demographic issues of preserving human potential of Ukraine. Trends are analysed and problems of public health, demographic reproduction and migration of the population of Ukraine in conditions of full-scale war are identified. The state of public health requires long-term monitoring with the identification of the direct and indirect impact of war on physical and mental health. The current object of analysis should be the health of children of war. The analysis of demographic reproduction confirms the demographic catastrophe of Ukraine. This is evidenced by the facts that Ukraine ranks first in the world in terms of mortality, has one of the lowest fertility rates among all countries. It is predicted that by 2100 the population of Ukraine will decrease by 61%. The demographic catastrophe is aggravated by mass migration losses. Ukraine ranks first in the world in terms of net migration coefficient. According to the conclusions of the World Economic Forum, forced migration is identified as the greatest risk for Ukraine. The analysis of forced migration processes allowed us to identify the threat of non-return of refugees, the growth of migration intentions among young people, as well as the intentions of irreversible migration of 1/5 of the population after the full opening of state borders. In addition to the threats, positive processes were identified that still support the potential for the return of refugees to Ukraine, including: an increase in the volume of remittances from migrants working abroad for more than 1 year, which indicates the preservation of their societal ties with Ukraine; better assessments of opportunities in Ukraine for doing business, the quality of banking, medical, housing and other services; although in 2023–2024, Ukrainian citizens received the most residence permits in the EU among foreigners, these indicators are lower than in the previous period, which indicates the predominant choice of refugees for temporary protection opportunities and expectations of changes in the security, socio-economic and political situation in Ukraine. The analysis reveals that despite the uncertainty of the course and consequences of the war, it is important to carry out long-term strategic planning and determine operational actions to preserve the human potential of Ukraine as a national security imperative.