A Different Kind of Spillover: Wider Implications of Current Tendencies in EU Asylum Policy

Abstract This article offers new insights on how current tendencies in EU asylum policy, in light of the results of the recent reform of the Common European Asylum System ( CEAS ), asylum policy implementation in the member states, and externalisation efforts, show spillover effects on the EU’s position on the global stage (foreign affairs), its internal functioning (rule of law), and member states’ ability to compete in the global economy (labour migration). Much of the critique of the CEAS reform, adopted in May 2024, has focussed on the questionable prospects for success the reform can provide for either the practical challenges of receiving people seeking protection in the EU or the resolution of political conflicts between member states in European asylum policy. In our contribution, we add to the debate three pivotal and often overlooked implications for other areas that current tendencies in EU asylum policy impact. First, we look into foreign policy and cooperation with third countries, including development cooperation, to scrutinise the EU’s credibility as a regulatory superpower that promotes a rules-based order. Second, we examine rule of law backsliding not only regarding refugee protection, but also in terms of CEAS provisions, policy implementation within member states, and illegal, yet normalised state practices at EU borders. Third, we illuminate implications for regular (skilled) migration to the EU against the backdrop of increasing demand for migrant workers due to demographic change and shifts within European labour markets. By employing rigorous policy and legal analysis, we demonstrate the detrimental spillover effects that current tendencies in EU asylum policy have on other crucial EU policy objectives.