Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on the Thermal Performance of Residential Buildings in Hot and Arid Regions

The main challenge for the scientific community is to mitigate climate change impacts while reducing energy consumption, without compromising comfort and quality of life. Buildings in hot climates require specific design strategies to limit the effects of extreme weather and heat waves. Standardized modern buildings, often unsuitable for hot and arid climates, lead to high energy consumption, mainly due to cooling systems, causing both discomfort and energy inefficiency. Previous studies have shown that solutions inspired by local vernacular architecture are often more effective than conventional construction techniques. This paper investigates the thermal response and discomfort intensity in two building models exposed to various climate scenarios: a typical modern residential building and a bioclimatic vernacular-inspired building. The analysis is conducted through dynamic thermal simulations under current as well as future medium- and long-term climate change scenarios. The study evaluates the buildings’ ability to adapt to future environmental changes, an aspect that has not yet been studied in depth. Results show that contemporary buildings experience significantly higher levels of thermal discomfort than vernacular buildings under both present (TMY) and future (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, 2080) climate conditions. Results show that under the present climate, the vernacular building exhibits about 22% fewer discomfort hours than the contemporary one and roughly half the overheating integrated degree-hours. Under future scenarios, overheating increases by 25.8% to 67.7% in the contemporary building and 36.1% to 89.6% in the vernacular building, yet the vernacular building consistently maintains substantially lower discomfort levels. Overall, vernacular inspired envelopes remain more resilient to warming in all scenarios, but additional adaptation measures are required to ensure acceptable summer comfort by late century.