Heavy-duty trucking is central to the U.S. economy, and improving its long-term sustainability requires cost-effective, energy-efficient, and reliable operations. Emerging technologies—advanced powertrains, batteries, and alternative fuels—offer potential solutions, but their economic and operational viability remains uncertain. This study evaluates the performance of Class 8 battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV), fuel cell electric (FCEV), and diesel trucks in terms of energy use and the levelized cost of driving (LCOD) to determine when these technologies become competitive without compromising operational reliability. The analysis explores how evolving fuel prices and vehicle technology improvements in 2023, 2035, and 2050 influence the cost competitiveness of each powertrain. By comparing the results at both the technology level and the fleet level, the study demonstrates that powertrains that appear cost-effective on individual routes may not always scale to fleet-wide viability, and vice versa. The analysis is based on real-world data from over 15,700 Class 8 truck trips recorded in California in 2022, capturing diverse driving scenarios, payload conditions, and operational constraints. The results show that BEV250 can deliver cost-effective performance in short-haul operations (0–250 miles) under depot electricity prices below USD 0.34/kWh and maintain this advantage through 2050 as battery costs decline. In the 250–500-mile segment, the technology-level analysis indicates that BEV500 often achieves the lowest LCOD on individual tours, particularly under low electricity prices, while the fleet-level results show that FCEVs provide a more consistent cost performance across all tours, especially when the route variability is high. For long-haul operations (>500 miles), where BEVs are assumed to operate without en-route charging, FCEVs emerge as the most cost-effective non-diesel option by 2050, provided hydrogen prices fall below USD 6/kg. PHEVs show a limited long-term competitiveness and are mainly viable under transitional fuel price conditions. Overall, the findings underscore that there is no one-size-fits-all solution. Powertrain adoption must be range-aware, infrastructure-sensitive, and fleet-structured. By integrating technology-level and fleet-level perspectives, this study provides actionable insights for fleet operators, policymakers, and industry stakeholders seeking to balance cost, reliability, and sustainability in heavy-duty freight.
Mansour et al. (Thu,) studied this question.