Abstract. The efficacy of the climate intervention method known as cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) is difficult to evaluate in climate models, largely due to uncertainties governing the relative contributions of homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation. Here we take a different approach by employing recent satellite retrievals from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) which provide estimates of the fraction of cirrus clouds dominated by homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation and their associated physical properties. We employ a radiative transfer model (RTM) to quantify the cloud radiative effect for homogeneous and heterogeneous cirrus clouds at the top of atmosphere (TOA), Earth's surface, and within the atmosphere. The RTM experiments are initialized using cirrus microphysical profiles derived from CALIPSO retrievals for cirrus clouds dominated by homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation across different regions (Arctic, Antarctic, and midlatitude) and surface types (ocean and land). We define two bounds: the lower bound assumes a full microphysical transition from the observed composition of homogeneous- and heterogeneous-dominated cirrus to only heterogeneous cirrus and production of new cirrus. The upper bound assumes production of new cirrus and that the atmospheric dynamics enables homogeneous freezing nucleation to occur regardless of the concentration of ice nucleating particles. Based on these bounds, we estimate an instantaneous surface effect ranging from −0.5 to +0.6 W m−2 and a TOA effect from −0.9 to +1.1 W m−2, respectively, showing the possibility of both cooling and warming. Recommendations are provided to improve the treatment of cirrus clouds in climate models.
Erfani et al. (Mon,) studied this question.