Abstract Background Alcoholic cardiomyopathy (AC) is a threat to the global health. The association of sociodemographic index (SDI), sex, age with the burden of AC from 1990 to 2021 are not well understood. Purpose The present study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of AC stratified by SDI, sex, and age from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the burden of AC to 2050 from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD). Methods Based on the GBD 2021 methodologies, we focused on the AC burden of the prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in different SDI and geographical regions. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to evaluate the trends from 1990 to 2021 and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to predict the trends of AC epidemiological trajectories to 2050. Results Globally, the age-standardized prevalence (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rates for AC in 2021 were 6·16, 0·74 and 25·34 per 100,000 persons, respectively. EAPCs shows these metrics all deceased globally from 1990 to 2021. The AC burden varied significantly in different SDI regions with high SDI regions having the highest ASPR (14·25 per 100,000 persons 95% UI 11·90 to 16·99), but EAPCs in ASPR increased in low SDI regions (0·22 95% CI 0·17 to 0·27). By 2050, there is a consistent decline trend of AC burden in both male and female, however, the trends vary with age with an upward trend before the age of 34. Conclusions In the past three decades, the AC burden had an overall reduction trend, yet an increase in low SDI regions. Identifying and understanding the epidemic characteristics of AC may guide priorities in targeting public health initiatives from professionals and policymakers.Global distribution of AC The trend of AC to 2050
Huang et al. (Sat,) studied this question.