The worldwide move toward renewable energy indicates a fundamental change that is particularly important in the MENA region, which has abundant renewable resources and has depended on hydrocarbon economies. This study presents an empirical examination of key macroeconomic determinants—inflation, fiscal policy, and economic volatility—on renewable energy security in MENA countries from 2000 to 2023. Applying a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model of 16 countries, we assess the short-run dynamic and long-run equilibrium relationships, where renewable energy security is measured using the share of renewable electricity in total generation. These results support the existence of a significant long-run cointegrating relationship. We find fiscal policy to have a positive effect on renewable energy security, while inflation and economic volatility have significant negative short- and long-term effects. The error-correction term of −0.421 signaled a relatively fast return to long-run equilibrium. We conclude that sound management of these macroeconomic variables—especially price stability and counter-cyclical fiscal policies—is an essential precondition for achieving renewable energy security in the MENA region. Our policy implications highlight the need to support stable investment inquiries led by coordinated monetary, fiscal, and energy policies aimed at creating the conditions for renewable energy security.
Rifaat Fathi Metwally Yousef (Sat,) studied this question.
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