Abstract Agricultural sector forms the backbone of India's socioeconomy. Despite consistent efforts to develop the irrigation network for increased agricultural production, approximately 60% of India's cropped area still remains rain fed, thereby functional to the strength of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The probability of a weak monsoon is strongly correlated with the occurrence of droughts during the ISM season. The possible influence of atmospheric drivers in initiating these droughts is observed through the dynamics of low‐level jets (LLJ) over the northern Arabian Sea forming the core of LLJ during the ISM. Interestingly, since the past 72 years, from 1951 to 2022, the core of LLJ has become dry (increased saturation deficit by 17%) and weak (reduced wind speed by 5%). Additionally, the wind speed (saturation deficit) at the core shares close dependence (75%–80%) with the initiation of dry (wet) extremes exhibiting maximum correlation at a 2‐day lag. Furthermore, we observed a 50% (40%) increase in the dry (wet) extremes driven by the lower‐atmospheric dynamics of the LLJ core. Consequently, these dry (wet) extremes are characterized by a 6% (12%) enhancement in duration (intensity). Such conditions act as strong precursors for monsoon droughts.
Singh et al. (2026) studied this question.