Abstract Springtime warming over Northern Mid‐High‐latitude Land profoundly affects plant life cycles and water resources, yet large model uncertainty limits climate risk assessment. Here, we develop a novel emergent constraint that targets the key uncertainty source—model divergence in surface‐albedo feedback linked to historical snowmelt sensitivity. This approach halves the spread of projected warming and reveals a pronounced geographical asymmetry. Under the high‐emission scenario (SSP5‐8.5), current climate models underestimate end‐of‐century warming over Eurasia by 0.80°C but overestimate it over North America by 0.44°C. These refined projections substantially alter ecological outcomes: the start of the growing season is predicted to advance by about 18 days in Eurasia and 8 days in North America, representing a 3‐day greater advance and 1‐day delay compared with original estimates. Our findings offer a more reliable basis for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems and water resources and highlight the urgency of region‐specific adaptation strategies.
Hu et al. (Wed,) studied this question.