This study investigates how the origin and language of public attention influence financial markets during geopolitical conflict, using Israel’s experience during the 2023–2025 Gaza War as a case study. We use Google Trends data—in Hebrew, English, and Arabic, sourced both worldwide and domestically—to explain fluctuations in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange’s TA-35 Index and the Israeli shekel’s exchange rates (USD/ILS and EUR/ILS). The results uncover a striking asymmetry: international searches, especially those in Hebrew and English, have significant power to explain Israeli market performance, while local, domestic searches are largely insignificant. Specifically, global Hebrew attention is positively associated with the shekel appreciating, suggesting that expressions of confidence or solidarity from the diaspora may actively reinforce market stability. In contrast, spikes in global English-language searches correspond with lower equity returns and temporary shekel depreciation, consistent with heightened international risk perception. These findings demonstrate that transnational behavioral networks and diaspora attention critically shape financial resilience during war. By integrating behavioral finance, conflict economics, and computational analytics, this research shows that the geographic and linguistic origin of attention, not just its sheer volume, is the key determinant of market reactions in times of crisis.
Papanikolaou et al. (Sat,) studied this question.
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