What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Observational. Population: Ischemic heart disease. Primary outcome: IHD incidence, deaths, and DALYs.

What question did this study set out to answer?

The study investigates the global impact of ischemic heart disease over three decades and forecasts future trends.

February 19, 2026

Global trends in ischemic heart disease and projections for 2022–2036

Key Result

Global ischemic heart disease incidence increased by 102% from 1990 to 2021, reaching 31.87 million cases, with projections indicating a further 0.30-fold increase by 2036.

Key Points

The study investigates the global impact of ischemic heart disease over three decades and forecasts future trends.
Analyzed GBD 2021 data of 371 diseases across 204 countries.
Categorized regions by Sociodemographic Index and disability-adjusted life years.
Utilized autoregressive integrated moving average model for projections.
Global IHD incidence doubled from 1990 to 2021, reaching 31.87 million cases.
Women experienced a 106% increase in cases compared to 98% in men.
IHD-related deaths totaled 8.99 million in 2021, with a 68% increase since 1990.
The highest incidence rates were in individuals aged 50–69 years, especially in men.
Future projections indicate a 0.30-fold increase in incidence from 2022 to 2036, particularly in women.

Study Design

Type

Observational

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

Population

Global population across 204 countries, analyzing ischemic heart disease (IHD) data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study

Outcome

Global incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ischemic heart disease from 1990 to 2021, and projections to 2036hard clinical

The global burden of ischemic heart disease has doubled over the past three decades and is projected to continue rising, highlighting the urgent need for targeted prevention strategies, particularly in middle-SDI regions and among women.

Abstract

Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) remains a leading cause of illness and death worldwide, posing a significant global health challenge. This study aims to examine the global impact of IHD over the past three decades, analyze regional and sociodemographic disparities, and predict future trends from 2022 to 2036. Methods Data from the GBD 2021 covering 371 diseases across 204 countries were analyzed. Regions were categorized based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Future projections were made using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Results From 1990 to 2021, the global IHD incidence more than doubled, increasing by 102%, reaching 31.87 million cases in 2021. Women experienced a faster increase (106%) than men (98%). Men represented 56.35% of cases, while women accounted for 43.65%. The highest incidence was observed in individuals aged 50–69 years, with age-standardized incidence rates of 372.90 per 100 000, higher in men (450.39) than women (301.5). IHD-related deaths in 2021 totaled 8.99 million, a 68% increase since 1990, with men accounting for 55.64%. Global DALYs were 188.36 million, with men contributing 61.04%. Regional disparities were notable, with the Middle SDI region seeing the highest growth in IHD burden. Future projections indicate a 0.30-fold increase in IHD incidence from 2022 to 2036, with more pronounced growth in women. Conclusion IHD remains a major global health issue, with increasing rates in low-income and middle-income countries. Targeted interventions focused on prevention, early detection, and management, particularly for women and older populations, are essential to addressing this growing burden.

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