What does this research mean for the field?

The Breast Cancer Index (BCI) is significantly prognostic for the risk of overall distant recurrence in patients with early-stage HR+ HER2+ breast cancer treated with adjuvant trastuzumab-based chemotherapy. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.NOVEL_FINDING. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.SUPPORTS_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

This study aims to evaluate the prognostic performance of the Breast Cancer Index (BCI) in HR+ HER2+ breast cancer patients treated with trastuzumab.

February 22, 2026

Abstract PS3-07-28: Prognostic performance of Breast Cancer Index in patients with early-stage HR+ HER2+ breast cancer (BC) treated with adjuvant trastuzumab: NCCTG N9831 (Alliance)

Key Points

This study aims to evaluate the prognostic performance of the Breast Cancer Index (BCI) in HR+ HER2+ breast cancer patients treated with trastuzumab.
Included tumor specimens from HR+ HER2+ BC patients in the NCCTG N9831 trial.
Performed BCI testing blinded to clinical outcomes.
Used Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard models to analyze distant recurrence-free intervals (DRFI).
11% of patients classified as low-risk and 83% as high-risk according to BCI/BCIN+ with significant differences in 10-year DRFI rates.
For N1 patients, 83% were high-risk with a 10-year DRFI of 89%.
BCI demonstrated continued prognostic significance after adjusting for clinical factors with a hazard ratio of 7.54 in the multivariable analysis.

Abstract

Abstract Background: The Breast Cancer Index (BCI) is clinically validated to stratify patients with hormone receptor-positive (HR+), early-stage BC based on the risk of overall (0-10 years y) and late (5-10 y) distant recurrence (DR) with N0/N1 lymph node involvement. Validation of BCI in patients with HR+ HER2+ BC has been limited, especially in patients treated with adjuvant trastuzumab-based chemotherapy. The HOXB13 and IL17BR genes constitute the predictive component of BCI and are known to exhibit an ER-dependent correlation pattern with HER2. We evaluated the prognostic performance of BCI in patients with HR+ HER2+ disease enrolled in the NCCTG N9831 (Alliance) trial treated with the combination of chemotherapy and trastuzumab. Methods: All available tumor specimens from patients with HR+ HER2+ N0/N1 BC in arms B (sequential trastuzumab) and C (concurrent trastuzumab) of the trial were included. BCI testing was performed blinded to clinical outcomes. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI). BCI (N0) and BCIN+ (N1) risk groups were calculated based on prespecified cut points. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank testing were used to assess the prognostic significance of BCI/BCIN+ risk groups based on DR. Cox proportional hazard models with and without clinical covariates were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), and the associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: A total of 454 HR+ patients (234 arm B, 220 arm C), including 69 N0 and 385 N1 patients, were analyzed (median age was 47 y, 85% N1, 55% T2, 63% G3). BCIN+ scores were available for 378 of the 385 N1 patients due to missing tumor grade for 7 patients. The median follow-up was 12.7 years. In the overall cohort, BCI/BCIN+ stratified 51 (11%), 24 (5%) and 372 (83%) patients as low-, intermediate- and high-risk with 10-y DRFI rates of 96% (95% CI: 84-99%), 100% (100-100%) and 89% (86-92%), respectively. Since the low and intermediate risk groups had few patients and a similar risk of 10-y DRFI, they are combined into a single low-risk group hereafter. Thus, for overall 10-y DR, 75 (17%) and 372 (83%) of patients were classified by BCI/BCIN+ as low and high risk with 10-y DRFI rates of 97% (95% CI: 89-99%) and 89% (95% CI: 86-92%), respectively (HR=4.50, 95% CI: 1.09-18.61; p = 0.038). BCI/BCIN+ remained statistically significant in the multivariable analysis, adjusting for age, treatment, and nodal status (HR=7.54, 95% CI: 1.34-42.64; p = 0.022). For 69 N0 patients, BCI stratified 54 (78%) and 15 (22%) patients as low and high risk with 10-y DRFI rates of 100% (95% CI, 100-100%) and 77% (95% CI, 44-92%), respectively (p = 0.012). For 378 N1 patients, BCIN+ stratified 21 (6%) and 357 (94%) of patients as low and high risk with 10-y DRFI of 90% (95% CI, 66-97%) and 90% (95% CI, 86-93%), respectively (p = 0.07). Of the 21 patients classified as BCIN+ low-risk, two had BCIN+ scores of 6.75 and 6.73 in close proximity to the cut point (6.93) and experienced DR after 5 years, resulting in the same 10-y DRFI for both BCIN+ low- and high-risk patients. Conclusions: BCI is significantly prognostic for the risk of overall DR (0-10 y) in patients with HR+ HER2+ disease treated with adjuvant trastuzumab-based chemotherapy. Optimization of BCI cut points may further improve prognostic performance in HR+ HER2+. Additional validation in other HR+ HER2+ cohorts treated in the modern setting with anti-HER2-based therapy is warranted, given the small sample size of N0 patients and relatively low DR rate in the late recurrence cohort. In summary, these results provide further evidence of BCI’s utility to support clinical decision-making for adjuvant endocrine therapies for HR+ HER2+ BC. Support: U10CA180821, U10CA180882, U24CA196171, Genentech; Clinicaltrials.gov Id: NCT00005970; https://acknowledgments.alliancefound.org. Citation Format: S. Chumsri, E. Liu, K. Edwards, Y. Wen, Y. Zhang, A. K. Anderson, A. H. Partridge, L. Carey, K. Ballman, E. Perez, K. Treuner, M. Goetz, E. Thompson. Prognostic performance of Breast Cancer Index in patients with early-stage HR+ HER2+ breast cancer (BC) treated with adjuvant trastuzumab: NCCTG N9831 (Alliance) abstract. In: Proceedings of the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2025; 2025 Dec 9-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2026;32(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PS3-08-08.

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