Although many policy actors have committed to a just transition, climate and energy measures still fall short of energy justice principles. Amidst sharply rising geopolitical tensions, transition policy risks sidelining commitments to justice. Operationalizing conceptual justice frameworks in real-world policy processes to reveal the social risks of energy decisions and inform necessary policy responses is essential for reinforcing just transition ambitions. We develop a research collaboration with Vilnius City Municipality, Lithuania, and apply an adapted three-tenet Energy Justice (EJ) framework as a diagnostic tool early in Vilnius's transition planning with local actors to surface just transition risks ex-ante. We then examine how these risks are perceived, negotiated, and addressed in routine policy practice. Our empirical evidence comes from three participatory workshops and nineteen in-depth interviews with local policy and societal actors. While the EJ framework helped reveal normative concerns associated with Vilnius' planned policies, it could not fully capture cross-cutting just transition risks. Treating justice conflicts as distinct recognitional, distributive, and procedural issues overlooks how inequalities are reproduced in policy processes. Just transition possibilities in Vilnius are constrained by low institutional and social trust, misaligned governance incentives, and technocratic and instrumental justice frames among policy actors. Rebuilding trust and improving visibility of intersecting vulnerabilities through participatory governance, developing targeted distributive justice measures, and setting a dedicated just transition governance framework are three action priorities for Vilnius. Overall, anticipating just transition risks requires integrating normative, causal, and participatory inquiry and accounting for how governance and actor dynamics shape justice trajectories. • Energy Justice framework is adapted as diagnostic tool in live transition planning • Tenet-based Energy Justice fails to capture reinforcing risks to just transition • Just transition outcomes are shaped by policy processes and governance context • Low institutional and social trust risk locking-in unjust transition in Vilnius • Technocratic framings narrow how policy actors understand vulnerability and justice
Gurčinaitė et al. (Tue,) studied this question.