What question did this study set out to answer?

To assess the potential impact of cutting Ryan White services on HIV infection rates in the US.

February 26, 2026

Targeted cuts to Ryan White programs could raise HIV incidence by 8–17% in 30 US states and the District of Columbia

Key Points

To assess the potential impact of cutting Ryan White services on HIV infection rates in the US.
HIV transmission model simulation conducted in 30 states and Washington DC.
Projected outcomes based on the cessation of specific Ryan White program services.
Established a timeframe for projections extending to 2030.
Projected an additional 23,883 HIV infections by 2030.
Estimated an increase in HIV incidence by 17.6% under a standard model.
Conservative estimates projected an 8.1% increase in infections due to service cuts.

Abstract

Using an HIV transmission model in 30 states and Washington DC, we simulated ending Ryan White services from Parts C and D and the Ending the HIV Epidemic and Minority AIDS initiatives in February 2026. We projected 23 883 additional infections by 2030 (95% credible interval 2812–53 813) – a 17.6% (2–39.5%) excess. A ‘conservative’ estimate of suppression losses projected 8.1% (4.4–12.3%) more infections. Ryan White services are critical to preventing US HIV transmission.

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Cite This Study

Zalesak et al. (Wed,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699fe3d995ddcd3a253e7eb5 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1097/qad.0000000000004425

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