March 3, 2026Open Access

Upper-Level Winds and Carbon Emission Variability on Russia-Ukraine Rerouted Flights

Key Points

Flight distance increased by approximately 823 nautical miles due to airspace restrictions, impacting fuel consumption.
Rerouted flights resulted in a fuel consumption increase of about 2,240 kg per trip, significantly affecting emissions levels.
The analysis utilized ERA5 data to calculate true airspeed, fuel use, and carbon output accurately over a one-year period.
Findings suggest that stronger headwinds at higher altitudes are prevalent during the seasonal variations observed.

Abstract

The airspace restrictions due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have increased flight distance and fuel consumption, along with carbon emissions. In this study, Korean Air Flight KE907 is used as a case study to analyze the changes in flight trajectories and upper-level wind conditions before and after the conflict. The application of ERA5 (ECMWF reanalysis v5) allows the calculation of TAS, fuel consumption, and carbon emissions. The analysis indicated that the rerouted path increased the flight distance by approximately 823 NM, accompanied by a significant escalation in headwind effects. Consequently, the fuel consumption per flight increased by approximately 2,240 kg, and carbon emissions increased by approximately 6,552 kg. Furthermore, an examination of seasonal and altitude-dependent variations in upper-level winds over a one-year period revealed a trend of stronger headwinds at higher altitudes.

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Cite This Study

Seo et al. (Mon,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69a75cafc6e9836116a25c2b https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.12985/ksaa.2025.33.4.066

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