Evaluation of GFS T1534 hindcast precipitation skill over the Indian summer monsoon region

Key Points

• Hindcast evaluations show significant variability in precipitation skill across seasons, impacting forecasts.
• The evaluation reveals a skill correlation of 0.68 during peak monsoon months, indicating strong predictive ability.
• Assessment using skill metrics across historical data highlights both strengths and weaknesses in precipitation predictions.
• These findings suggest that refining the hindcast model could improve forecasting reliability, benefiting weather prediction efforts.