What question did this study set out to answer?

The research aims to evaluate the efficiency of renewable energy systems in off-grid communities in Ethiopia using forecasting models.

March 5, 2026Open Access

Methodological Assessment of Off-Grid Communities Systems in Ethiopia Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Efficiency Measurement

Key Points

The research aims to evaluate the efficiency of renewable energy systems in off-grid communities in Ethiopia using forecasting models.
Utilized the ARIMA model for forecasting energy consumption patterns.
Evaluated the operational performance of off-grid renewable energy systems.
Developed proactive maintenance schedules based on forecasted demand.
Applied uncertainty-aware statistical criteria for inference.
Identified significant variations in efficiency among off-grid systems.
Forecasting models indicated potential improvements in operational performance.
Optimizing system configurations based on forecasts can enhance overall efficiency.

Abstract

Off-grid communities in Ethiopia rely on various renewable energy sources for power supply, but their efficiency and performance vary widely. The study employs ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model for forecasting energy consumption patterns and evaluating system efficiency. The ARIMA model provides a robust framework for monitoring and enhancing the operational performance of off-grid renewable energy systems in Ethiopia. Implementing proactive maintenance schedules and optimising system configurations based on forecasted demand can improve overall efficiency. The empirical specification follows Y=₀+^ X+, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.

Methodological Assessment of Off-Grid Communities Systems in Ethiopia Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Efficiency Measurement

Key Points

Abstract

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