Quasi-Experimental Design Assessment of Smallholder Farm Systems in Kenya: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Smallholder farming systems in Kenya have faced challenges related to productivity and sustainability. There is a need for cost-effective interventions that can be scaled up across diverse regions. A mixed-methods approach combining econometric analysis and qualitative case studies was used. Data were collected through surveys and interviews in selected counties. The analysis revealed that a specific fertilizer subsidy programme led to an average yield increase of 20% in maize crops, with cost savings per hectare reaching 50 compared to baseline conditions. This study provides evidence on the effectiveness of targeted agricultural interventions and highlights the importance of localized policy implementation for sustainable smallholder farming. The findings suggest that policymakers should prioritise evidence-based agricultural support programmes such as fertilizer subsidies in cost-effectiveness evaluations. Model estimation used =argmin_ᵢ (yᵢ, f_ (xᵢ) ) +₂², with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.