International order is entering a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. From Ukraine to Gaza and now Iran, conflicts are escalating in ways that test the institutions and norms created to prevent war and protect civilian life. Military strikes by the USA and Israel on Iran beginning on Feb 28, 2026, have further destabilised a region that is already grappling with multiple conflicts and humanitarian crises, including the war in Gaza, long-running conflicts in Syria and Yemen, and ongoing political and economic instability in Lebanon and Iraq.
The Lancet Regional Health – Europe (Sun,) studied this question.