This study adheres to a logistic regression modeling protocol originally developed for long-range intelligence analyses and employs data from UN demographic estimates (the 2024 revision) to generate a set of statistical functions that suggest a moderately strong relationship between increasing median age and the probability of a persistently positive international net migration rate (NMR). According to this relationship, the post-Cold War probability (data from 1990 to 2015) of experiencing a persistently positive net migration rate (defined as a +NMR, directly followed by five consecutive years of +NMRs) rose from less than 0.12 at a population median age of 15 years, to a probability greater than 0.55 at 36 years, and then to more than 0.77 at 45 years. The author hypothesizes a speculative set of predictions aimed at providing long-term tests for this model. These predictions assume that, by a median age of 36.0 years, at least one country in the hypothesized cluster of countries will have shifted to experiencing a series of +NMRs. If, as this model predicts, the age-structurally associated transition to sustained +NMRs transpires by 2055, there could be a substantially larger pool of migrant net-receiving states in parts of Asia, Latin America, and North Africa than the UN’s future scenarios currently project.
Richard P. Cincotta (Mon,) studied this question.
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