A Data-Driven Methodology for Developing a Future Design Day Flight Schedule (DDFS)

The design day flight schedule (DDFS) plays a pivotal role in airport simulation and infrastructure planning. Despite its importance, previous studies and global guidelines offer only broad recommendations for DDFS preparation, lacking detailed methodologies and empirical validation. This study proposes a systematic, data-driven approach for generating a future DDFS that accounts for projected demand, airline behavior, and regional traffic characteristics. Leveraging historical flight operation data and probabilistic distributions, the proposed method captures existing patterns and anticipated market changes comprehensively. To realistically define each flight’s operational characteristics, a structured 10-step procedure is employed to generate and assign attributes—such as aircraft type, origin/destination airport, and turnaround time—based on empirical patterns and logical constraints. The proposed approach is applied to Incheon International Airport as a case study, demonstrating its practical utility and scalability. The generated DDFSs are shown to be consistent with target-year forecasts in terms of peak-hour operations and fleet composition, with deviations remaining within a small error range. Additional validation confirms that key operational characteristics, including airline shares, connection patterns, and turnaround times, are reproduced with acceptable accuracy. By bridging the gap between high-level guidance and implementable practice, this study contributes a replicable framework for future DDFS generation and provides actionable insights for airport planners aiming to better anticipate operational demands.