This essay investigates the geopolitical shifts that unfolded in the Middle East from October 2023 to the end of 2025, stimulated by the surprise attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent events it triggered. These included military confrontations between Israel and each of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The essay demonstrates that these developments have reshaped power positions and alliances in the Middle East, leading to a more complex and unpredictable geopolitical landscape. It sketches out the new regional balance of power, identifying ascending and descending powers–both states and non-state actors–as well as pertinent dynamics and their potential implications for stability. The essay, however, argues that while changes have occurred within the Middle Eastern system, they have not altered its core features.
Nael Shama (Wed,) studied this question.