Cultivar evolution through plant breeding is a cornerstone of contemporary food security, but the extent to which genetic adaptation to climatic variability and shocks contributes to yield gains is not well known. Here, we compile 48,797 cultivar-site-year observations from 2001 to 2020, covering the four prominent maize production regions in China with differing shifts in climatic conditions. The data shows that cultivar evolution underlies long-term yield gains, with productivity increasing by 0.3-2.8 Mg ha-1 per decade. Yields in Northeast China (NEC) and North China (NC) are most vulnerable to heat stress during July and August, whereas high or insufficient precipitation during the growing season is a foremost constraint to yield gains in Southwest China (SWC) and Northwest China (NWC), respectively. Cultivar evolution has significant impacts on yield sensitivity to climate, with genotypic sensitivities to heat stress amplifying in NEC and diminishing over time in NC, respectively. In contrast, yield sensitivity to precipitation increases in SWC and NWC as a result of breeding. These results underscore the importance of breeding climate-resilient cultivars that account for contextualised in situ environmental constraints and climatic adversities in obtaining high yield.
Zhang et al. (Fri,) studied this question.