Assessing and predicting the challenges and uncertainties of rice cultivation in Toyama prefecture, Japan

Climate change and global warming are altering weather patterns, threatening crop productivity. The resultant impact can be food insecurity. Japan’s rice farms are in a precarious situation due to a multifaceted crisis driven by climate change and socio-economic factors. Utilizing remote sensing and the MaxEnt predictive modeling approach to identify declining rice fields can significantly enhance agricultural potential and provide a pertinent solution for integrated, place-based sustainable management in the regions. This technique suggests the likely abandonment of rice fields owing to climate change and socio-economic context by identifying the principal factors contributing. The research aims to explore rice cultivation’s scenarios, challenges, and uncertainties to bring policy-relevant, place-based solutions for food security in Himi City, Toyama Prefecture, Japan. The land-use and land-cover analysis shows that rice fields have decreased by 590 ha from 2000 to 2025 in Himi City. The results indicate that summer precipitation and mean temperature, along with the number of agricultural management people, are the primary factors influencing the potential abandonment distribution of rice fields, accounting for a cumulative contribution of > 70%. Rice fields are expected to decline northwestward, and the high probability for declining regions of rice fields is predicted to be 733 ha, while the total area of decline due to various ranges of vulnerability comprises 2392 ha. This decrease in rice fields and the probable future decrease present potential risks for rice cultivation in Himi City. Future efforts for mitigating the effects of climate change on rice planting adaptation should include sowing period changes, cultivar innovation, and rationalized application of fertilizer. These adaptable solutions are critical for advancing rural revitalization initiatives and promoting the integrated advancement of sustainable socio-environmental and agricultural development. This multidisciplinary research seeks to contribute to Target 13 (climate action) of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and SDG 2, which aims to eradicate hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture.