The Evolution of Vietnam’s Policy toward China amid the Deepening Strategic Partnership with the United States

Profound geopolitical shifts and the new reality of great power competition pose challenges to small and medium-sized states, compelling them to reassess their strategies. In this context, Vietnam, with its significant geostrategic position in the Indo-Pacific, demonstrates a capacity for proactive and flexible balancing, particularly in managing relations with China and the United States. This article examines how Vietnam’s policy toward China has evolved alongside the strengthening of its strategic partnership with the United States. The study focuses on Vietnam’s foreign policy strategy amid transformations in the international system, specifically the evolution of its policy toward China in the context of deepening ties with the United States and the associated balancing mechanisms. The study draws on neorealist and constructivist approaches. Neorealism explains Vietnam’s need to balance under pressure from major powers, while constructivism highlights the role of identity, historical experience, and narratives in shaping foreign policy behavior. The upgrading of Vietnam–U.S. relations in 2023 marked a significant milestone. Behind the apparent response to U.S.–China rivalry lies a deeper dilemma: how to manage relations with China as both a key partner and a security challenge. Thus, Vietnam’s core dilemma is not choosing between Washington and Beijing, but balancing cooperation with the United States and stability with China. The study aims to determine whether Vietnam’s rapprochement with the United States leads to adjustments in its China policy or confirms the effectiveness of its “bamboo diplomacy.” While existing studies address Vietnam’s strategy toward major powers, limited attention has been paid to how closer U.S. ties affect its approach to China. The findings may help explain regional foreign policy behavior and inform policy recommendations for states navigating between major powers.