Fertility Transition: Is sub‐Saharan Africa Different?

Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa (“Africa”) stood at 5.1 births per woman in 2005–10 (United Nations 2011), more than double the replacement level. This high fertility combined with declining mortality has resulted in rapid population growth—2.5 percent per year—and the UN projects the sub-Saharan population to grow from 0.86 billion in 2010 to 1.96 billion in 2050 and 3.36 billion in 2100. Such unprecedented expansion of human numbers creates a range of social, economic, and environmental challenges and makes it more difficult for the continent to raise living standards. Hence the growing interest in demographic trends in Africa among policymakers. According to conventional demographic theory, high fertility in the early stages of the demographic transition is the consequence of high desired family size. Couples want many children to assist with family enterprises such as farming and for security in old age. In addition, high child mortality leads parents to have additional children to protect against loss or to replace losses. Fertility decline occurs once rising levels of urbanization and education, changes in the economy, and declining mortality lead parents to desire a smaller number of births. To implement these desires, parents rely on contraception or abortion, and family planning programs in many countries